Technological Civilisations

Technological Civilisations

What percentage of the lifetime of a planet is marked by a technical civilisation? In our case, the Earth has harbored a technical civilisation characterized by radio astronomy for only a few decades out of a lifetime of a few million years. So far, then, for our planet the lifespan is less than 1/108, a millionth of a percent! And unfortunately for us, it is hardly out of the question that we might destroy ourselves tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.

Suppose this were to be a typical case, and the destruction so complete that no other civilisation (technical or biological, of the human or any other species) were able to emerge in the billions of years remaining before our Sun dies. Then a simple mathematical equation would prove that at any given time there would be only a handful, a tiny smattering, a pitiful few civilisations which achieved technical phase in the Galaxy, the steady state number maintained as emerging societies replace those recently self-immolated.

Grosso modo, if civilisations tend to destroy themselves soon after reaching a technological phase, there might be no one for us to talk with but ourselves.

(Extract from The Rain, the famous SF novel by Elena and George B.)

Dundas Street, Toronto, Canada. Photo by Elena