Downhill

It's Downhill From Here

The best resorts have greens, blues, and blacks all overwhelming

Looking for lots of expert terrain? Head to Jackson Hole, Mad River Glen, or Mammoth Mountain. Deep powder? Your best bets are Alta, Grand Targhee, or Snowbird. Kids love skiing at Smuggler's Notch, Beaver Creek, and Snowmass, while teen activities are excellent at Sugarloaf, Breckenridge, or Kullington. The ski schools are highly rated at Taos, Beaver Creek, and Deer Valley, while scenery alone is enough reason to go to lake Louise or Telluride. Crowds are seldom found in Solitude or Big Sky, and the weather is consistently fine at Purgatory, Alpine Meadows, and Squaw Valley, Wonderful European ski villages are at Vail and Whistler/Blackcomb, while art aficionados might prefer Aspen or Taos. It's funly and western in Steamboat, and an old mining town waits in Red River. Gamble at Heavenly or party on at Whiteface/Lake Placid. You'll eat well on the mountain in Sun Valley or dine happily in the town of Stowe.

Of course, all these areas have multiple attributes and flaws, as well. The process of weighing them all to get a ranking is, of course, purely subjective. In fact, the table at left shows how three major ski magazines obtained dramatically different results. Here are some of the pros and cons of the ski areas that made Ski magazine's top 10 list. We've noted readers' top preferences at the different resorts.

1. Vail, Colorado: The perennial favorite for Ski readers, Vail is a complete resort. Twenty-five lifts service 4,000-plus acres, including the seven bowls on the back side that often hold powder for days after a storm. The twon is huge, too, with 41,305 beds and plenty of options for shopping, dining, or partying. Vail appeals to a wide range of people, from Europeans and Hollywood celebrities to dishwashing ski bums and snowboarding home-boys – ensuring big crowds throughout the season and lots of votes in readers' polls. Prices are ski-high, too. Top ratings: Snow conditions and grooming, terrain, challenge, fair weather, food, lodging, après-ski, and family programs.

2. Telluride, Colorado: Although tough to get to, there is great scenery and a funky small-town atmosphere in Telluride. The front side looms over the town with a 3,165-foot vertical rise and plenty of bump skeeing, while the back side slopes away to the mountain village. Overall, this is an excellent ski mountain with plenty of terrain variety, and relatively few people crowding it. Top rating : Terrain, lifts and lines, challenge, and fair weather.

A Snow Pyramide. Photo by Elena.

3. Aspen Highlands, Colorado: Aspen Highlands has the highest vertical lift in Colorado (3,800 feet) and two new high-speed quad lifts to service it. There is good variety of terrain, and experts love the two steep ridges that provide innumerable challenges. At the foot of the lifts is one of America's great ski towns, with plenty of restaurants, bars, and jet setters. Top ratings: Snow conditions and grooming, terrain, value, challenge, and fair weather.

4. Alta, Utah: Alta gets 500-plus inches a year, draped over challenging terrain. The lift prices are low too, but that's largely because the resort owner has resisted the urge to modernize. Old and slow lifts result in lineups on the weekends. The local amenities are limited, but Salt Lake City is just 45 minutes away. Top ratings: Snow conditions and grooming terrain, value, challenge, fair weather, and accessibility.

5. Whistler/Blackcomb, British Colombia. These two close-by Canadian resorts boast long runs, wide open terrain, lots of variety, and breathtaking vistas. The service and on-slope lodging are first class, and there are excellent children's programs. The village is car-free with easy strolling between shops and nightspots. But proximity to the Pacific often means wet snow. Terrain, lifts and lines, challenge, food, lodging, apres-ski.

6. Snowbird, Utah: Like Alta a mile up the road, Snowbird gets 500-odd inches of bone-dry powder each year. The terrain is steep (3,100 feet vertical), and features excellent chutes and gullies. There is also an enlarged intermediate section and a separate area for families or beginners. Local apres-skiing options are limited, but not as limited as Alta's. Top rating: Snow conditions and grooming, terrain, challenge, fair weather, and accessibility.

7. Snowmass, Colorado: Just down the road from the town of Aspen, Snowmass is a family area, with vast intermediate terrain (lots of cruising runs) and an excellent ski school. Top ratings: Snow conditions and grooming, terrain, challenge, fair weather, food, lodging, apres-ski, and family programs.

8. Taos Sky Valley, New Mexico: Taos is a hybrid resort, combining European flair with southwestern charm. Steep is the operative word, with long mogul runs and out-of-bounds skiing on Kachina Peak, but there is plenty of intermediate terrain, too. The ski school is consistently ranked as one of the country's best. There are on-slope hotels and restaurants, but a far greater selection exists in the nearby town of Taos, Top ratings: Snow conditions and grooming, terrain, lifts and lines, challenge, fair weather, and family programs.

9. Mammoth Mountain, California: This huge resort is aptly named. At last count there were more than 30 lifts and 150 runs, many of them above the tree line. There is extensive snowmaking in addition to an average annual snowfall of 340 inches. Ans it's only a five-hour drive from Los Angeles. Top ratings: Snow conditions and grooming, terrain, challenge, and fair weather.

10. Steamboat, Colorado: The area is known for its tree-skiing, dense aspen glades that hold powder beautifully. There also is a great ski school, especially for kids, and above-average possibilities for dining and nightlife. But the most prominent feature about Steamboat is the working ranch-town atmosphere. Top Ratings: Snow conditions and grooming, terrain, lifts and lines, challenge, lodging, and family programs.

Where Birds Flock Together

Where Birds Flock Together

All the right places from coast to coast for spotting species

Virtually every setting – coastline, open prairie, big city park – makes for rewarding bird-watching. One of the joys of the sport is how little equipment it requires. Binoculars and a comprehensive field guide are all you need, through a telescope is best for observing waterfowl and other stationary birds. Roger F. Pasquier, an author of several books on birds, works at the Environmental Defense Fund. He chose the following locales as among America's best for bird watching. For information, contact the sources below:

Arkansas National Wildlife Refuge : The 54,000-acre refuge is most famous for its rarest bird, the whooping crane. More than 100 of this highly endangered species (there are only 150 left in the world) are usually here between mid-October and early April, visiting from breeding sites in Alberta. Vistors can view them only at a distance by boat. Five companies run cruises in season. For information, contact Rockport Chamber of Commerce.

Blackwater National wildlife Refuge : One of several outstanding sites on the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay. Thousands of migrating ducks and geese congreagte in the refuge mid-October through November and mid-February through March (as long as the oibds aren't frozen). Bald eagles are permanent residents.

Cape May Point: Cap May Bird Observatory. The southern tip of New Jersey acts as a funnel for migratory birds between the Atlantic Ocean and Delaware Bay, Mid-August into November, flocks follow the coastline south. North of Cape May, at Stone Harbor Point, look for herons and egrets in spring and summer. The nearby Edwin Forsythe National Wildlife refuge at Oceanville is a haven for waterfowl and shorebirds from fall through spring.

Cave Creek Canyon: U.S. Forest Service, Portal Ranger Station. One of many outstanding birding locations in southern Arizona. Cave Creek contains a wide variety of species in a small area. Of special interest are the many essentially Mexican birds that do not venture farther north of the border, including hummingbirds and the painted redstart.

Central Park in New York, a favorite of birds. Photo by Elena.

Central Park, New York City: Urban Park Rangers. Like its counterparts in other dense cities, Central Park serves as a green oasis, especially important to migratory birds in spring and fall. Late April through May is peak season; on a good day, 70 kg or more species can be seen, including thrushes, vireos, warblers, orioles, tanagers, and other migrants from the tropics. The Ramble, a wooded area on the north side of the park's main lake, lures most species. The reservoir is a winter favorite of ducks and gulls.

Cheyenne Bottoms Wildlife Management Area: Dept. of Wildlife and Parks. Cheyenne Bottoms. This western Kansas wetland is an important locale for waterfowl and other birds dependent on marshes. Thousands of ducks and geese use the bottoms, and as many as 15.000 American white pelicans land here during migration.

Dauphin Island: Audubon Bird Sanctuary, Al.: This 14-mile barrier island near Mobile is one of many landfalls along the Gulf Coast known for the vast numbers of northbound migrants every spring that need to rest and feed after their long flight across the Gulf of Mexico. The 164-acre Audubon Bird Sanctuary is one of the best birding spots on the island. Shorebirds, terns, marsh birds can be seen much of the year in the mudflats, lagoons, and other wetlands.

Everglades National Park, Homestead, Fl.: Some 2,200 square miles of wetland encompassing most of the undeveloped parts of southern Florida. A system of paved roads, trails and patches of woods. Many species of herons, egrets, and other wading birds are abundant. In spring and summer the spectacular swallow-tailed kite glides overhead. Many Everglade birds are tame enough to be photographed easily.

Grand Teton National Park, Moose, Wy: The park combines spectacular scenery and diverse habitats typical of the Rockies. The endangered trumpeter swan breeds here. Note the regular replacement of one species by a close relative as the elevation changes – a progression you can see among the jays (including the black-billed magpie and Clark's nutcracker), nuthatches, chickadees, thrushes, and sparrows.

Hawk Mountain Sanctuary Association, Kempton, PA: This site along the Kittatinny Ridge (the eastern chain of the Appalachians), located 35 miles from Reading, is on a flight path for migrating birds of prey. Late August through November, all eastern North American species of hawks, eagles, and falcons take this aerial highway in numbers.

Monterey Peninsula, Pacific Grove Museum of Natural history,, Pacific Grove, Ca: The municipal wharf and the Coast Guard pier and breakwater allow for good views of saltwater ducks, gulls, and alcids (murres, guillemots, and other puffnlike birds). From Point Pinos, you can see shearwaters and alcids over the sea. Along the rocky shore look for Pacific coast species, including the black oystercatcher, the surfbird, and the wandering tattler.

Mount Desert Island, Acadia National Park, Bar Harbor, ME:  Habitats include oceanside cliffs, sphagnum bogs, spruce and fir forests, and bare mountain peaks, all accessible by roads and trails. Excellent birding throughout the year: common eiders, black guillemots, bald eagles, northern ravens, and gray jays. May through August, 200 wood warbler species and many other migrants from the tropics nest here. In winter, sea ducks are easily visible in the harbors.

Tule Lake, Klamath Basin National Wildlife Refuges, Tulelake, CA: Three national wildlife refuges – Lower Klamath, Clear Lake (not open to the public), and Tule Lake – are oases for waterbirds in the semidesert near the Oregon border. The refuges support significant breeding populations of grebes, ducks, gulls, terns, and cormorants. Rarely seen sage grouse live in the dry uplands.

Yosemite National Park, Merced, Ca: Elevations in the Sierra Nevada range from 2,000 to 13,000 feet, providing a cross section of habitats. Many birds typical of more northerly forests are easy to see, including the great gray owl and pine grosbeak. Rare in the East, they coexist with typical Rockies denizens like the calliope hummingbird and others. Spring and summer are the best seasons.

Modern Portfolio Theory

Reducing Risk: Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)

Portfolio theory begins with the premise that all investors are like my wife – they are risk-averse. They want high returns and guaranteed outcomes. The theory tells investors how to combine stocks in their portfolios to give them the least risk possible, consistent with the return they seek. It also gives a rigorous mathematical justification for the time-honored investment maxim that diversification is a sensible strategy for individuals who like to reduce their risks.

The theory was invented in the 1950s by Harry Markowitz. His book, Portfolio Selection, was an outgrowth of his Ph.D. Dissertation at the University of Chicago, Markowitz is a scholarly academic “computenick” type with a most varied background. His experience has ranged from teaching at UCLA to designing a computer language at RAND Corporation and helping General Electric solve manufacturing problems by computer simulations. He has even practiced money management, serving as president of Arbitrage Management Company, which ran a “hedge fund.” (Basically what Markowitz did was to search with the computer for situations where a convertible bond sold at a price that was “out of line” with the underlying common stock. He admitted, however, that it was “no great trick” and that competitors would be joining him in increasing numbers. “Then when we start tripping over each other, buying the same bonds almost simultaneously, the game will be over. Two, three years at most.” Three years later, he admitted that convertible hedges were no longer attractive in the market. Consequently, he had moved on to do hedging operations on the Chicago Board Options Exchange.

What Markowitz discovered was that portfolios of risky (volatile) stocks might be put together in such a way that the portfolio as a whole would actually be less risky than any one of the individual stocks in it.

Manhattan. Macy's. Photo by Elena.

The mathematics of modern portfolio theory (also known as MRT) is recondite and forbidding; it fills the journals and, incidentally, keeps a lot of academics busy. That in itself is no small accomplishment. Fortunately, there is no need to lead you through the labyrinth of quadratic programming for you to understand the core of the theory. A singly illustration will make the whole game clear.

Let’s suppose we have an island economy with only two business. The first is a large resort with beaches, tennis courts, a golf course and the like. The second is a manufacturer of umbrellas. Weather affects the fortunes of both. During sunny seasons the resort does a booming business and umbrella sales pluumet. During rainy seasons the resort owner does very poorly, while the umbrella manufacturer enjoys high sales and large profits. The following table shows some hypothetical returns for the two businesses during the different seasons:

Umbrella Manufacturer – Rainy season – 50%. Sunny season – 25%.

Resort Owner – -25%. Sunny season – 50%.

Suppose that, on average, one-half the seasons are sunny and one-half are rainy (i.e., the probability of a sunny or rainy season is ½). An investor who bought stock in the umbrella manufacturer would find that half the time he earned a 50 percent return and half the time he lost 25 perecent of his investment. On average, he would earn a return of 12 ½ percent. This is what we have called the investor’s expected return. Similarly, investment in the resort would produce the same results. Investing in either one of these businesses would be fairly risky. However, because the results are quite variable and there could be several sunny or rainy seasons in a row.

Suppose, however, that instead of buying only one security an investor with two dollars diversified and put half his money in the umbrella manufacturer’s and half in the resort owner’s business. In sunny seasons, a one-dollar investment in the resort would produce a 50-cent return, while a one-dollar investment in the umbrella manufacturer would lose 25 cents. The investor’s total return would be 25 cents (50 cents minus 25 cents), which is 12 ½ percent of his total investment of two dollars.

Note that during rainy seasons exactly the same thing happens – only the names are changed. Investment in the umbrella manufacturer produces a good 50 percent return while the investment in the resort loses 25 percent. Again, however, the diversified investor makes a 12 1/2 percent return on his total investment.

This simple illustration points out the basic advantage of diversification. Whatever happens to the weather, and thus to the island economy, by diversifying investments over both of the firms the investor is sure of making a 12 1/2% return each year. The trick that make the game work was that while both companies were risky (returns were variable from year to year), the companies were affected differently by weather conditions. (In statistical terms, the two companies had a negative covariance – Statisticians use the term covariance to measure what experts call the degree of parallelism between the return of the two securities. If we let R stand for the actual return from the resort and r be the expected of average return, while U stands for the actual return from the umbrella manufacturer and u is the average return, we define the covariance between U and R (COVUR) as follows:

COVUR = Prob. Rain (U, if rain -u) (R if rain -r) + Prob. Sun (U if sun – u) (R if sun -r).

From the preceding table of returns and assumed probabilities we can fill in the relevant numbers:

COVUR = 1/2 (0.50 – 0.125) (-0.25 – 0.125) + 1/2 (0.25 – 0.125) (0.50 – 0.125). = -0.141

Whenever the return from two securities moves in tandem – when un goes up the other always goes up – the covariance number will be a large positive number. If the returns are completely out of phase, as in the present example, the two securities are said to have negative covariance).

As long as there is some lack of parallelism in the fortunes of the individual companies in the economy, diversification will always reduce risk. In the present case, where there is a perfect negative relationship between the companies’ fortunes (one always does well when the other does poorly), diversification can totally eliminate risk.

Of course, there is always a rub, and the rub in this case is that the fortunes of most companies move pretty much in tandem. When there is a recession, and people are unemployed, they may buy neither summer vacations nor umbrellas. Therefore, one should not expect in practice to get the neat kind of total risk elimination just shown. Nevertheless, since companies’ fortunes don’t always move completely in parallel, investment in a diversified portfolio of stocks is likely to be less risky than investment in one or two single securities.

It is easy to carry the lessons of this illustration to actual portfolio construction. Suppose you were considering combining General Motors and its major supplier of new tires in a stock portfolio. Would diversification be likely to give you much risk reduction? Probably not. It may not be true that “as General Motors goes, so goes the nation” but it surely does follow that if General Motors’ sales slump, G.M. will be buying fewer new tires from the tire manufacturer. In general, diversification will not help much if there is a high covariance between the returns of the two companies.

On the other hand, if General Motors were combined with a government contractor in a depressed area, diversification might reduce risk substantially. It usually has been true that as the nation goes, so goes General Motors. If consumer spending is down (or if an oil crisis comes close to paralyzing the nation) General Motors” sales and earnings are likely to be down and the nation’s level of unemployment up. Now, if the government makes a habit during times of high unemployment of giving out contacts to the depressed area (to alleviate some of the unemployment miseries there) it could well be that the returns of General Motors and those of the contractor do not move in phase. The two stocks might have very little covariance or, better still, negative covariance.

The example may seem a bit strained, and most investors will realize that when the market gets clobbered just about all stocks go down. Still, at least at certain times, some stocks do move against the market. Gold stocks are often given as an example of securities that do not typically move in the same direction as the geeral market. The point to realize in setting up a portfolio is that while the variability (variance) of the returns from individual stocks in important, even more important in judging the risk of a portfolio is covariance, the extent to which the securities move in parallel. It is this covariance that plays the critical role in Markowitz’s portfolio theory.

True diversification depends on having stocks in your portfolio that are not all dependent on the same economic variables (consumer spending, business, investment, housing construction, etc.) Wise investors will diversify their portfolios not by names of industries but by the determinants that influence the fluctuations of various securities.

The following chart illustrates the theory quite nicely. Looking first at the top line of the figure, marked “U.S. Stocks,” we see that as the number of securities in the portfolio contains close to 20 equal-sized and well-diversified issues, the total risk (standard deviation of returns) of the portfolio is reduced by about 70 percent. Further increase in the number of holdings does not produce and significant further risk reduction. Of course, we are assuming that the stocks in the portfolio utilities would not produce an equivalent amount of risk reduction.

Having learned the twin lessons that diversification reduces risk and the diversification is most helpful if one can find securities that don’t move in tandem with the general market, investors in the 1980s have sought to apply these principles on the international scene. Since the movement of foreign economies is not always synchronous with that of the U.S. economy, we should expect some additional benefits from including foreign companies in the portfolio. The potential benefits of international diversification are illustrated in the bottom line of the figure. Here, the stocks are drawn not simply from France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. As expected, the international diversified portfolio tends to be less risky than the one of corresponding size drawn purely from stocks directly traded on the NYSE. Even further benefits would be achieved by including securities from the Pacific Rim countries, such as Japan and Australia.

Burton G. Malkiel. A Random Walk Down Wall Street, including a life-cycle guide to personal investing. First edition, 1973, by W.W. Norton and company, Inc.

Presidential Reading List

Presidential Reading List

The following books are lauded by historians and pundits as the best sources of information about the institution and the individuals that make up the presidency

General Books

Presidential Power and the Modern Presidents: the Politics of Leadership from Roosevelt to Reagan by Richard E. Neustadt: The classic. A prominent Harvard professor looks at the leadership abilities of presidents from WWII to the end of the Cold War.

The Presidential Character: Predicting Performance in the White House. James David Barber: What characteristics affect the ability of presidents to lead and succeed? Barber looks at the inhabitants of the White House from Washington to Carter and singles out the patterns associated with successful presidential performance.

First Ladies by Betty Boyd Caroli: An in-depth look at presidential wives from Martha Washington to Nancy Reagan, including an examination of the origins of the term first lady, a look at the role’s controversies, and a study of the role’s evolution.

Chinatown, New York. Photo by Elena

Biographies

Washington: The Indispensable Man by James Thomas Flexner: Originally four volumes, but even the abridged version is exhaustive in its account of Washington’s life from the French and Indian War to his death in 1799.

Jefferson and His Time by Dumas Malone: This work by investigative reporter claims to uncover new material and challenge previously held assumptions about Jefferson’s life, philosophy, and moral beliefs. It started quite a bit of controversy on its release.

James Monroe: The Quest for National Identity by Harry Ammon: A complete account of Monroe’s life, from his birth in Virginia in 1758 and his early army career through the Confederation Congress and the Presidency.

Andrew Jackson and the Collapse of American Empire by Robert Remini: From his childhood to the presidency. An examination of both character and historical context.

The Age of Jackson by Arthur M. Schlesinger: Beautifully written, this, is the definitive account of the impact of Jackson’s two terms on the evolving democratic traditions of 19th-century America.

The Presidency of James K. Polk, bu Paul Bergeron: One of the most important works about the Poli presidency. An examination of Polk’s emergence as a political leader.

Shopping Centers in Iceland

Shopping Centers in Iceland

If you are interested in international brands, shopping centers Kringlan and Smáralind are the places to visit.

Kringlan Shopping Center

Kringlan Shopping Center in Reykjavík is located a 10-minute drive from the city centre. Over 170 shops offer an excellent variety of fashion, jewelery, arts and handicraft as well as restaurants and coffee houses, a bar, various services and a cinema. There you will find the outdoor clothes shops 66°North and ZO-ON Iceland.

Smáralind Shopping Center

Smáralind Shopping Center has around 90 stores and is located in Kópavogur, a15-minute drive from the centre of Reykjavík. You will find a large variety of clothing stores, several specialty stores, restaurants and coffee houses as well as Iceland’s largest cinema. The 66°North clothing shop is also located here.

ZO-ON Iceland While enjoying the great outdoors, wearing the proper clothing is most important, especially in Iceland. ZOON is a highly popular brand of Icelandic-designed outdoor clothing that you can trust.

General view on Iceland. Photo by Olga

Tax Free Shopping

Collect your Refund

Collect your refund in cash, get it credited to your credit card or mail back the check by using the Refund envelope accompanying the check. Make sure you are well informed of the terms and conditions. VAT rates are 24% and 12% on books and music. Minimun spending amount (VAT included) is 6,000 ISK. Maximum 3 months from date of purchase for validation of goods.

Purchased items, together with receipts and other documents must be shown BEFORE going to passport control.

Purchaser has to have permanent residence outside of Iceland.

Refund Locations

Collect your refund at these locations:

    Keflavík airport – Arion Bank

    Reykjavík airport - Information desk

    Reykjavík harbour - Service centre for cruise passengers

    Seyðisfjörður Port – Tax-free desk, Smyril Line

For more information, see https://www.kefairport.is or http://www.cruiseiceland.com.

As a traveler residing outside Iceland, you are entitled to claim VAT on your purchases. Shopping for more than 6000 ISK on one receipt makes you eligible for a tax refund, so remember to ask for your Tax Free Refund Form at the store counter. When departing from Keflavík Airport, the Tax Free Refund is paid in the currency of your choice. Other departure points usually have a service desk or tax-free agent on board.