Every Hill Ends With Sky

Every Hill Ends With Sky

Robert Reed

But the purge freed up niches for fresh colonists, including one Brazilian graduate student. More a software guru more than a biologist, the woman was nonetheless versed in natural selection, and she had a fearless interest in all kinds of connected specialities, like mathematics and cybernetics and fantastical fictions. And after a week spent reviewing everyone else’s empty results, the newcomer decided on an entirely different test.

She resurrected the solar system inside a null-heart computer, putting things where they stood four billion years ago. Here was the newborn earth and an authentic Mars, the most likely Venus and the rest of marquee characters, alng with many more asteroids than existed today. Her model was unique, but not in large, overwrought ways. The worlds were laced with small assumptions that she never intended to defend. This was her game, she assumed. This was meant to be easy grant money while she pushed ahead with her doctorate. And because this wasn’t her primary job, she let the scenario play out more than once, never hunting for the bugs. Watching nothing work out as intended, and every time with the same luicrous results.

There was a husband in the picture, an aeronautical engineer who kept hoping for a child or two, if their lives went well enough. He wasn’t the most observant beast when it came to emotions, but one night, glancing at his wife he realized that he had never seen that expression before. Was she scared? Was she angry? Maybe work was a problem, be he feared some kind of trouble with their little family.

«What is so wrong?» he whispered.

«Nothing,» she said.

She never was much of liar.

The young man tried waiting her out, and he tried coaxing. Neither strategy worked well. Only when she was ready did his wife explain, «These simulations keeping giving odd results, the same results, and they want me to fix my mistakes.»

«Who wants to fix this?»

«Crypsis does.»

«Oh,» he said. «This is your planet game.»

Every Hill Ends With Sky. Photo by Elena

She often called it a game, but now she bristled at the cavalier label. « Yes. That’s what I’m talking about. The four-billion year model.»

«All right, darling,» he said, attempting to project calmness.

«Mars,» she said. «I always guessed Mars would be the problem. It’s small and cools early, so you have to assume that its lifeforms would gain early toeholds everywhere.»

The wise course was to say nothing, which is what he did.

Sne continued, saying, «I’ve always encouraged Earth and Mars and Venus to produce multiple lifeforms. Dozens, even hundreds of discrete biologies would emerge when the crusts cooled and water condensed. Each biology would align to local chemistries and temperatures. And on every world, everything eats the alien neighbors as well as every tasty cousin. The only winners are metabolically isolated, and only then if there was ample space and a long timeline.»

Science Fiction and Fantasy 2015, edited by Rich Horton, Prime Books, 2015.

Quick Wins

Quick Wins

You should fully exploit the under-promise, over-deliver rule.

Before starting any analysis, try to begin with the easiest options. For example, using Pareto Rule, you have identified the key 20% of distributors and you have some reliable information on a certain distributor. Then focus on him. It’s called Quick Win. To focus on the Quick Wins is a very useful approach. Starting with it is key, especially if you are asked for an update, in which case you can demonstrate that you are making great progress.

You should always try to anticipate the next step. If you are one step ahead, you start sketching new studies and preparing another step. The more creative you are, the better. Anticipating the next step is a great way to over-achieve.

It is very important to keep you word. This involves first managing and then exceeding expectations by over-delivering on what you promise. Maintain honesty and integrity, build trust and develop prosperous long-term work relationship. Illustration: © Megan Jorgensen (Elena)

Anyway, you should always keep in mind the following points:

    If you set low expectations (if you under-promise) and you under-deliver, you will be ignored. Your client or your boss will not even consider your work.

    If you set high expectations (if you over-promise) and you under-deliver, you client will be angry. This is the worst scenario, as your client is expecting a lot from you and you are not able to achieve what you made a commitment to do.

    If you set too low expectations (you under-promise too much) and over-deliver, the client will be bored. You overachieved, but somehow he or she knew that you could do better and is not particularly surprised that you over-delivered.

You need to take into consideration the fact that as you over-deliver, there is a shift of expectations from your partners. If you over-deliver several times in a row, there can be two possible explanations:

    You are very good, and this raises expectations for the upcoming projects

    You are average but you under-promise. In this case each time you try to under-promise they will expect more from you.

In both cases there is a shift in expectation. That is why is very important that you over-deliver, but you should alternate between setting high and low expectations. To reduce the shift in expectations, it is a good idea to make your boss or client feel a little bored some of the time.

Age of Retirement: Can You Afford to Quit?

Age of Retirement: Can You Afford to Quit?

More and more, the burden for funding the golden years in on you

Where does the average retiree’s income come from? For those pulling in more than $20,000 a years in retirement income, the largest chunk of the pie, 39 percent, comes from personal savings and investments. Employer pensions contribute 15 percent and continued employment by one or both spouses provides 26 percent. Only 20 percent comes from Social Security benefits, according to the Treasury Department.

Most workers use a combination of pension, Social Security, and personal savings to get them through their retirement years. But both Social Security and pensions are undergoing changes. Social Security is being taxed and has a ceiling. And employers also are cutting back on traditional pensions and moving toward 401 (k) plans, which workers fund through their own salaries. It’s clear that the onus is increasingly on workers to fund their own retirement.

The simple fact that Americans are living longer and more active lives means you’ll probably need more than your parents did to finance retirement. What’s more, research shows that most baby boomers will retire at living standards below those enjoyed by their parents, who have been able to count on generous government benefits, company pensions, and booming securities and real estate markets.

Red, yellow and white flowers. Dark plants in background.

Just how much will you need to retire comfortably? A good rule of thumb is that you’ll need 60 to 80 percent of your pre-retirement annual income to maintain the same standard of living during retirement. Once you’ve calculated that number, you can figure out if your retirement nest egg, including 401 (k)s and other pension plans, will generate enough income for you to retire. Consult tables developed by different retirement planning forms that will tell you if you’re putting enough aside to retire.

If you find you’re not saving enough, how you face up to that shortfall depends on many factors, including your age, of course, and how you are allocating your assets. You may need to shift investments into more aggressive growth funds, if you have a long way to go before you retire, for example. Retirement experts also suggest the following:

Take full advantage of your 401 (k) plan. Contribute the top allowable amount.

Consider an Individual Retirement Account, if you are younger than 70-and-a-half and have earned income. You can sock away a determined amount into an IRA every year. Your money grows tax deferred and the contributions often are fully or at least partly tax deductible.

Funding a Longer Lifespan

Those looking toward retirement should keep in mind that age 65 is not the finish line. Better to focus on how long you are likely to live, say retirement experts, then build in lots of flexibility and contingency plans.

If you are self-employed, you may be able to save as much as 25 percent of your earned income, in an SEP-IRA or a Keogh. You can deduct contributions from your taxable income. And again, earnings are tax-deferred until you take the money out.

A smart and painless way to save: Have your investment deposited automatically from your paycheck, checking account, or money market fund.

Set realistic goals. Stick to them and monitor your progress regularly.

Don’t think it is going to be easy – especially if you’re already 40-something. According to Merrill Lynch, the investment firm, the average baby-boomer household saves at only one-third the rate needed to finance a comfortable retirement.

Staying on Track: It’s never too soon to start planning retirement,, nor is it ever too late. Here are the financial and legal mileposts you’ll encounter as you look down the road and at what age you should expect them.

Age 55: Minimum age for many senior communities. If you retire or lose your job, you can withdraw from your Keogh 401 (k), and profit sharing without tax penalty or having to annuitize. You can sell your house tax-free onn a capital gain.

Age 59-and-a-half: You can withdraw a lymp sum from certain pension plans – IRA, Keoogh, 401 (k), without a tax penalty.

Age 60: You qualify for senior discounts from stores, hotels movies, etc.

Age 62: You qualify for Social Security, but you’ll get more if you wait until age 65.

Age 65: If you’re getting Social Security benefits, you are automatically enrolled in the Medicare hospital insurance program. If you’re not on Social Security, you must apply for Medicare coverage.

Age 70: Social Security benefits rise, if you’re just starting; personal income – regardless of how much – doesn’t reduce Social Security benefits.

Age 70-and-a-half: You must start withdrawing from private plans, like IRA and Keogh, by April I or face tax penalties

Social Security: What to Expect From Uncle Sam

Social Security: What to Expect From Uncle Sam

In the future, you’ll have to work longer before you collect

A retiree would have a tough time surviving on Social Security benefits alone. The average annual Social Security benefit paid in 1994 was a meager $8,088. You can start taking benefits at age 62 but you’ll suffer a permanent 20 percent cut in benefits. If you wait until 65 or beyond, you could get up to several thousand dollars more a year.

Keep in mind that legal changes have extended the age at which people will start getting Social Security payments in the future.

The full retirement age will be increased in gradual steps. For example, benefits start at age 65 and two months for those born in 1958 and four months for those born in 1959, 65-and-a-half for those born in 1960, 65 and 8 months for those born in 1961, and 65 and 10 months for those born 1962. Those born between 1963 and 1973, will have to wait until they reach 66. The steps increase until those born in 1980 reach full retirement at age 67.

Probably what one gets crossing sunflowers and chamomilles (daisy, daisylike flowers). Photo by Elena

Working beyond your full retirement age can help you get higher Social Security payments because you’ll presumably be adding relatively high earnings to your Social Security records. Higher lifetime earnings mean higher benefits. On the other hand, working while you’re getting Social Security could lower your benefits. If you are 62 to 64, you could reduce your payments by $1 for every $2 you earn over the limit. If you are 65 to 69, your benefits are cut by $1 for every $3 you earn over the limit. Once you hit 70, your benefits can’t be cut, though, no matter how much you earn.

But benefits depend on your earnings history and that of your spouse’s, so you may want to call the Social Security Administration for a more accurate estimate. And who knows how Congress will tamper with your benefits? Under current law, if you receive income of addition to your Social Security benefits up to 85 percent of your benefits could be included in your taxable income. Congress has been tinkering with the amount subject to tax, and inevitably will do so again

Odd-Lot Theory

The Odd-Lot Theory

This theory holds that except for the man who is always right, no person can contribute more to successful investment strategy than a man who is know to be invariable wrong. The “odd-lotter,” according to popular superstition, is precisely that kind of person. Thus success is assured by buying when the odd-lotter sells and selling when the odd-lotter buys.

Odd-lotters are the people who trade stocks in less than 100-share lots (called round lots). Most amateurs in the stock market cannot afford the $5,000 investment to buy a round lot (100 shares) of stock selling at $50 a share. They are more likely to buy, say, ten shares for a more modest investment of $500.

By examining the ratio of odd-lot purchases (the number of shares these amateurs bought during a particular day) to odd-lot sales (the number of shares they sold) and by looking at what particular stocks odd-lotters buy and sell, one can supposedly make money. These uninformed amateurs, presumably acting solely out of emotion and not with professional insight, are lambs in the street being led to slaughter. They are, according to legend, invariably wrong.

It turns out that the odd-lotters might be slightly worse than the stock averages. However, the available evidence (which admittedly does not match what has been accumulated in testing many of the other technical strategies) indicates that knowledge of his actions is not useful for the formulation of investment strategies.

Odd-Lot Theory. Photo by Elena

One of the available studies examines the theory that an investor can make use of data on odd-lot sales and odd-lot purchases in selecting stocks. Supposedly, a switch from net odd-lot buying (where odd-lot shares purchased exceed odd-lot shares sold) to net odd-lot selling (odd-lot sales greater than odd-lot purchases) should be taken as a “buy” signal, since the boobs who sell odd-lots obviously don’t know what they’re doing. The data did not support this contention. Indeed, the rule failed to indicate the major turning points for individual stocks or for the market as a whole. Moreover, the odd-lot index was a very volatile one, switching back and forth from net sales to net purchases quite frequently. This suggests that an investor who followed the strategy would incur very heavy brokerage charges, which would eat substantially into his capital.

With the exception of a few technicians who sell their services to the public, few professional investment people believe in the odd-lot theory anymore. Indeed, some professional applicable to today’s institutionally dominated market. Instead of looking at the behavior of the little guy in the market, it is suggested that the yo-yos who run the big mutual funds are the odd-lotters of today, and that investors should look at what they are doing and then do the opposite.

Burton G. Malkiel. A Random Walk Down Wall Street, including a life-cycle guide to personal investing. First edition, 1973, by W.W. Norton and company, Inc.