Republican Revolution

The Republican Revolution

(Historical review)

The Republicans currently hold 54 seats in the U.S. Senate; the Democrats, 46. In ’96, 33 seats are up for grabs. Of those, 15 are currently held by Democrats. Four of the Democratic seats are considered toss-ups, with an additional nine seats in varying degrees of jeopardy. Of the 18 Republican seats up for grabs, on the other hand, 11 seem sure to remain in Republican hands. Elizabeth Wilner, managing editor of The Cook Political Report, a respected politician newsletter, for a state-by-state assessment of the ’96 races.

Alabama: Democrat Howell Heflin, who won 61 percent of the vote in 1990, is retiring. With the South becoming ever more conservative, Democrats will have a hard time holding on.

Alaska: Four-term incumbent Ted Stevens won two-thirds of the vote in 1990 and is expected to win again in 1996.

Arkansas: Democrat David Pryor, who ran unopposed in his last election, is stepping down. But the set is likely to stay Democratic.

Colorado: The only open Republican seat in 1996 with the retirement of Hank Brown. The state’s junior senator, Ben Nighthorse Campbell, recently jumped parties to the GOP. The Democrats’ chance of picking up this seat depends on whether they can field a candidate with statewide name recognition.

Delaware: Three-termer Joseph Biden won his last race by a comfortable 63 percent and is going into election season as one of only two Democratic senators considered a safe bet for reelection (The other: Jay Rockefeller of West Viriginia.)

Georgia: Sam Nunn was unopposed in 1990, but he is likely to face a wide field which could become still wider if he is fact retires, as some have speculated he will.

Idaho: Larry Craig, a solid Republican seat, incumbent Craig is expected to win easily.

Illinois : With the retirement of Democrat Paul Simon, this is one of the biggest battlefields of ’96. Illinois has been following the more rightward tilt of the rest of the country. The state’s junior senator, Carol Moseley Braun, is the only African American in the Senate.

Iowa: Tom Harkin is likely to keep his seat. Complacent Democrats might be wise to take note: Harkin, who won his last election with 54 percent of the vote, is the only Democrat left in the state’s congressional delegation.

Kansas: Nancy Kassebaum, the daughter of 1936 Republican presidential nominee Alf Landon, Kussebaum is a shoo-in, she garnered 74 percent of the votes in her 1990 race.

Kentucky: Mitch McConnell won 52 percent of the vote in 1990 and should retain his seat.

Louisiana: Democrat Bennett Johnston is retiring. The race to succeed him is a toss-up. Still, Louisiana, like the rest of the South, is becoming more Republican.

Massachusetts: John Kerry won 57 percent of the vote in 1990 and is likely to hold onto his seat.

Maine: William S. Cohen, despite the presence of several challengers, Cohen’s hold on his seat looks solid.

Michigan: Carl Levin faces an uphill battle. The seat leans Democratic, but Levin could be dragged down by Clinton’s poor ratings in Michigan.

Minnesota: Paul Wellstone. This is likely to be one of the more vicious races of 1996. First-termer Wellstone faces a Republican field dominated by former-Senator Rudy Boscjwitz, from whom Wellstone took his seat in 1990 by a minuscule margin.

A big manifestation. Photo by Elena

Mississippi: Incumbent Thad Cochran is running unopposed.

Montana: This one of the five Democratic seats rated a toss-up. Baucus won a fourth term in 1990 with 68 percent of the vote, but his vote for the 1994 crime bill has made him vulnerable to a conservative constituency opposed to the assault opposed to the assault weapons ban. Historically, however, Montana leans Democratic.

Nebraska: Democrat Jim Exon is retiring after three terms. Nebraska hasn’t had a Republican senator in over a decade, but this time they have a good shot at electing one.

New Hampshire: Bob Smith. In this conservative New England State, the GOP will likely prevail.

New Jersey: Bill Bradley, the former basketball great may hang up his political sneakers. He was elected by a bare majority in 1990; look for surprises.

New Mexico: Pete Domenici, as his approval rating reaches 75 percent, he should be easily reelected.

North Carolina: The ever-controversial Jesse Helms will probably keep his seat, but it’s of a sure thing.

Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe won his seat in a special election in 1994, following the resignation of Democrat David Boren. He should get reelected.

Oregon: Mark Hatfield was the lone GOP holdout against the balanced budget amendment. He may retire, but if he runs, he’ll win.

Rhode Island: Claiborne Pell, the 77-year-old Senate aristocrat may retire to the manor. But the seat should remain in Democratic hands.

South Carolina: Strom Thurmond. The state is among the most Republican in the country. Whether or not Thurmond, who is 92, runs again, the Republicans are likely to hold on to this seat.

South Dakota: Larry Pressler is the only incumbent Republican whose reelection chances are rated a toss-up. One factor: South Dakota Jeans Republican in presidential years.

Tennessee: Ex-actor and Watergate counsel Fred Thompson was elected in 1994 to serve the final two years of Vice President Al Gore’s Senate term. The chances are good that he’ll be reelected.

Texas: Although Phil Gramm is also running for the Republican presidential nomination, Texas law permits him to keep his reelection bi open at the same time. In any case, the seat is considered safe for the GOP.

Virginia: John Warner won his 1990 election with 81 percent of the vote, but intra-party feuding could cause him trouble – he refused to back GOP Senate nominee Oliver North in 1994. Still, the seat will likely stay in Republican hands.

West Virginia: Jay Rockefeller, the only Democrat-held seat, besides that of Joe Biden of Delaware, that is considered safe.

Wyoming: Alan Simpson is a shoe-in for reelection.

People Marching. Photo by Elena

A region by region look at the battle for the House

The Republicans captured control of the House of Representatives for the first time in over 40 years in the 1994 elections and currently hold 231 of the total 435 seats. Leading the charge was Newt Gingrich, the Georgian who is now Speaker of the House, who pledged nothing less than a Republican revolution. We asked Norman J. Ornstein, a congressional scholar and fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, whether the Gigrich forces are likely to prevail again in ’96. Here’s how he sees things shaping up region by region.

The South : The region has changed remarkably over the last 30 years from being an overwhelmingly Democratic base to one where Republicans are now more dominant. Because of redistricting and changing voting patterns among white voters, white Democrats are becoming a dying breed. If the Democrats are reduced to largely black districts, then the South will become a Republican base.

A historical comparison is instructive : in 1960, Democrats held 94 percent of the seats in the South – about a quarter of the House. Now the number of seats has increased, from 104 in 1960 to 125 seats today. Democrats currently make up 48,8 percent of the southern House delegation. Thus, the proportion of seats held by Democrats has been cut in half as the number of seats has increased.

If you look back to the era of Democratic dominance to Congress, it was built on a Southern Base. If the Democrats don’t have that base, they will have headaches.

The West: This is the most competitive region in the country. The Rocky Mountains states (which include Colorado, Montana, and Wyoming) were a Democratic stronghold in the ’50s. Now Democrats have only 25 percent of them. The other area that matters is the West in the Pacific Region (Oregon, Washington, and California). It was there and in the South that the Democrats took the biggest hit in ’94. They went from holding almost two-thirds of the seats there to less than half.

The Midwest: Republicans could do well there. The Democrats suffered significant losses in the Midwest in ’94. The area currently is divided evenly between the two major parties.

The Northeast : We’ve seen almost a complete reversal from from back in the ’30s and ’40s. In the early part of this century, New England was a major base for the Republican party, along with the Plains states. Now there are the strongest regions for the Democrats. The Northeast as a whole is likely to see the least political change in the near future.