Return of the Comeback Kid

Democrats and Republicans: Return of the Comeback Kid?

Early indicators spell trouble for Bill Clinton, but the field is wide open

The campaign is already well under way. By the summer of 1995, President Clinton indicated that he would seek reelection (no surprise there) and nine Republicans had declared their intent to take the job away from him. And there’s always a chance of a third party challenge like the one Texas billionnaire Ross Perot mounted in 1992.

So far, the electoral arithmetic shows some signs that the president is slipping. The Cook Political report, a well-respected newsletter, already has predicted that Clinton is likely to lose seven states that he won in 1992 – Georgia, Louisiana, Kentucky, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Tennessee.

Even if that turns out to be the case, victory could still be within Clinton’s grasp. He easily defeated George Bush in 1992 with 370 electoral votes, a comfortable 100-vote margin over the 270 that are needed to win.

There are not many good omens for the president in the results of the 1994 mid-term elections, however. Democrats did poorly all across the country, but particularly in the West and Midwest, regions that were crucial to Clinton’s ’92 with 370 electoral votes, a comfortable 100-vote margin over the 270 that are needed to win.

There are not many good omens for the president in the results of the 1994 mid-term elections, however. Democrats did poorly all across the country, but particularly in the West and Midwest, regions that were crucial to Clinton’s ’92 victory. All told, Democrats lost eight Senate seats and 55 House seats, the most for any party since 1980 and 1948, respectively. In addition, polls show that a growing number of voters are willing to consider a third party candidate, and voter registration groups report that large numbers of new voters are registering as independents.

Presidential primaries will come earlier and quicker than they did in 1992, when candidates were given of a breather to raise the funds that would carry them through to the final stretch. More than 70 percent of the Republican delegates to the national convention will be chosen before March 1996. In the past, primary battles have continued until as late as June. The thinking now is that if the primaries and early, the likely nominee can concentrate on fund-raising and strategy for the general election.

New York Downtown. Photo by Elena

No one expects the summer political conventions to be anything more than television-friendly coronations of already decided-upon candidates. Nonetheless, the amount of air tie the TV networks give to the conventions has been steadily declining in recent years. In 1992, none of the three major networks bothered with gavel-to-gavel coverage of the conventions. The Republicans are scheduled to meet in August in San Diego; the Democrats in Chicago in August. Republicans will try to avoid a replay of the ’92 convention in Houston, when the party’s right-wing sounded themes that alienated much of the general electorate. For their part, Democrats will strive to wipe out memories of their last convention in Chicago in 1968, which was marred by violent, highly politicized clashes between police and Vietnam War protesters.

Want to get an early lead on who is going to come out ahead on Election Day, November 5, 1996? Presidential debates may be interesting but there is little evidence that they significantly shape an election’s outcome. The second presidential debate of 1992, whose innovative formal allowed for questions from the audience for the first tie, attracted the largest U.S. Television audience ever, beating out the final episode of M*A*S*H in 1983. But Clinton was ahead in the polls before and after the debate. Historically, Labor Day polls have been most accurate when one candidate had a strong lead, such as in the 1984 election. In 1980, Jimmy Carter led in the polls past Labor Day but was soundly defeated by Ronald Reagan in November. Various seers tout their prediction methods, but all of their records have been spotty. Guess you’ll just have to wait and see.

Party nominations for the presidency aren’t settled in smoke-filled rooms. Instead, delegates, who usually (but not always) are pledged to a certain candidate, are selected in state-level primaries and caucuses and then go on to the national conventions to vote for a nominee