Old Farmer’s Almanac

Old Farmer’s Almanac

Flipping a coin with the old almanac

For centuries, farmer’s almanacs have made extravagant claims for their ability to make long-term weather predictions. Not only are farmers said to plant their crops according to their favorite almanac’s advice, but even city dwellers are impressed by the annual forecasts of such stalwart practitioners of the art as the Old Farmer’s Almanac, published continuously since 1792. When The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicted heavy snowfall in the Northeast for the winter of 1994-1995, sales of snow shovels and snow tires were reported to have boomed. But how do The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s long-term forecasts measure up to those of the National Weather Service meteorologists at the Climate Analysis Center in Camp Springs, Md?

The almanac predicts general climatic data for each month of the year, but unlike the National Weather service, it tries to predict specific weather events in two- to three-day time periods. The almanac’s own full-time meteorologist relies on solar activity as the major indicator of future weather conditions. If their publishers believe there’ll be a storm of significant magnitude, they would predict it. Otherwise, they might just say rain or snow.

Climate. Can we predict general climatic data for each month of the year? Photo of Elena

However the publishers can’t cite success rates for the almanac’s forecasts, but meteorologists believe that to accurately gauge the almanac’s success, one would have to track many of its forecasts over many seasons. The Old Farmer’s Alamanac isn’t showing skill by that measure. That doesn’t mean that it’s not occasionally right. It’s right about as often as it’s wrong.

A University of Illinois study supports this claim. For instance, between November 1975 and October 1980, the almanac’s temperature forecasts proved accurate 53,2 percent of the time; its precipitation forecasts were right 51,5 of the time.

Winter season and our moods

During the winter season, many people's moods deteriorate. Some of the most common explanations given are lack of sunlight and enhanced loneliness felt by certain individuals during the holidays (due to the social gatherings emphasis).

The phenomenon has gained such presence, that there even is a related disorder: SAD or Seasonal Affective Disorder, a milder and temporary version of MDD or Major Depressive Disorder. By the way, clinical depression may likewise lift from time to time, or be cyclical and chronic.

However, health professionals are better able to provide any such information than the present text, which really has as its sole purpose the showcasing of some art inspired by cold winds... Thus, the images below represent some fantasy, romantic, Gothic and anime art, among other things.

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