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Saturday, May 19, 2018

Theories of Risk Management

Theories of Risk Management

By Megan Jorgensen



Just like parcours (a popular topic, consisting of a potentially very dangerous sport of running across buildings, depicted in cartoons such as American Dad episode Stanny Boy and Frantastic, mystery and thriller television series, and in music lyrics and cinematography), management and business studies is a popular subject in movies. For example, in the controversial movie Friends With Benefits, featuring Justin Timberlake (singer) and Mila Cunis (That 70s Show with Ashton Kutcher) he is a successful Website manager, while she’s a savvy headhunter.

Furthermore, Frigo & Anderson (2011) react to the financial crisis surrounding the events of subprime mortgages and subsequent bank collapses that started taking place somewhere around 2008. The authors do so by looking at risk management and enterprise governance. Enterprise risk management (ERM) is a significant area for businesses to look at in attempting to achieve commercial success. The issue has gradually gained international recognition, with the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) issuing a set of directives on how the process(es) should be carried out. In addition, credit rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s have demonstrated interest in a firm’s ERM system. As one knows from introductory economics courses, risk-loving individuals significantly differ in their investing strategies from risk-avoidant, or even risk-neutral individuals. Interestingly, the Strategic Risk Management Lab at DePaul University concentrates on devising countermeasures and focusing on such areas as the KRIs (Key Risk Indicators). Further, the RIMS (Risk & Insurance Management Society, Inc.) developed a risk management council. Moreover, management and business studies theorists point out that businesses tend to be dynamic, and thus risk management is a crucial issue to business teams. A top down approach to management may be warranted.

In the past and in the present risk management exists. Photo by Elena

By the same token, management studies can be quite elaborate and specialized, and used in areas not directly involved with trade. For example, managing resources is important in ecology, environment, and earth and planetary science (e.g. Bestelmeyer, 2011).

References:

Bestelmeyer, B. T., Goolsby, D. P. & Archer, S. R. (2011). Spatial perspectives in state-and-transition models: a missing link to land management? Journal of Applied Ecology, 48: 746-57.

Frigo, M. L. & Anderson R., J. (2011). Strategic risk management: A foundation for improving enterprise risk management and governance. Wiley Periodicals Inc.

Copyright © 2011 Megan Jorgensen. All rights reserved.

The Scriviner

The Scriviner

By Eleanor Arnason


She stayed with the dryads. By day, they wandered through the forest, sometimes gathering food and sometimes watching the life around them: green pines and yellowing ferns, birds flocking for their autumn migration. The forest shadows held numerous animals: deer, red foes, badgers, red squirrels, weasels, timy mice and voles. The dryads did not harm any of these. They were not hunters.

In the evening they made love in the meadow. Their nights were spent in an earthen cave, formed when a giant pine fell over. The dryads filled the cave half full with grass, and the four women kept each other warm.

One morning Orna woke and found the meadow was covered in frost. She was cold, in spite of the cave and the dryads. Winter was coming. She could not continue to live like this.

« What will you do? » she asked the dryads.

« We sleep through the cold months inside the trunks of trees – except for our sister here. » The dryad who was speaking gestured toward the dark maiden. « She will sleep at the bottom of the river, safe below the ice. »

« I can’t do that, » Orna said.

« Then go home to humanity, but return in the spring. »

The Scriviner. Photo by Elena

Orna kissed the dryads goodbye and went home. When she arrived, ragged and dirty, her father embraced her and said, « We thought you had died in the forest. »

« No, » Orna replied. « But I did not find the witch. The forest distracted me. I wandered a long time, not knowing where I was. »

This was misleading, but not a direct lie. She didn’t want to talk about the dryads. The city’s conservative society did not approve of magical creatures or sex between women.

Her father wisely did not ask more questions, but told his other daughters to fill a tub with hot water and find new clothes for Orna. They did gladly, happy that Orna was home.

Once she was clean and neatly dressed and eating a good dinner, the scrivener said to her, « Don’t think we failed to search for you, dear child. I went to the forest edge and talked to the farmers there. No one had seen you, though they d not go far into the forest, as they told me. They advised me to ask the hunters and charcoal burners, who went father in. We found them here in the city, selling their goods in the market. A rough lot, but not bad hearted. They hadn’t seen you, either. We offered a reward, and everyone – farmers, hunters and carcoal burners – said they would keep an eye out. It was all to no avail. You had vanished. »

Orna felt guilt, but she couldn’t think of a way to apologize or explain.

Science Fiction and Fantasy 2015, edited by Rich Horton, Prime Books, 2015.

Friday, May 18, 2018

Invisible Planets

Invisible Planets

By Hannu Rajaniemi

Travelling through Cygnus 61, as it prepares to cross the gulf between the galaxies, the darkship commands its sub-minds to describe the worlds it has visited.

In the lives of darkships, like in the journey of any ambassador, there always comes a time that is filled with doubt. As the dark matter neutralions packed tight like wet sand in the galactic core annihilate each other in its hungry Chown drive heart and push it ever closer to the speed of light, the darksphi wonders if it truly carries a cargo worthy of the Network and the Controller. What if the date it has gathered from the electomagnetic echoes of young civilisations and the warm infrared dreams of Dyson spheres, written onto tons upon tons of endlessly coiled DNA strands that hold petabytes in a single gram, is nothing more than a scrawled message in a botlle, to be picked up by fishrman in an unknown shore and the discarded, alien and meaningless?

That is why – before the relentless hand of Lorentz squeezes the ship.s clocks so thin that aeons pass with every tick and the starry gaze of the Universe gatheers into a single blazing, blue-shifted, judging eye – the ship studies its memory and tries to discern a pattern subtle enough to escape entropy’s gnawing.

Invisible Planets. Photo by Elena

During the millennia of its journey, the darkship’s mind has expanded, until it has become something that has to be exploded and mapped. The treasures it contains can only be described in metaphors, fragile and misleading and elegant, like Japanese street numbers. And so, more and more, amongst all the agents in its sprawling society of mind, the darkship finds itself listening to the voice of a tiny sub-mind, so insignificant that she is barely more than a wanderer lost in a desert, coming from reaches of the ship’s mid so distant that she might as well be a traveller from another country that has stumbled upon an ancient and exotic kingdom on the other side of the world, and now finds herself serving a quizzical, omnipotent emperor.

The sub-mind gives the ship not simulations or mind-states or data but worlds. She communicates with symbols, hints and whispers that light up old connections in the darkship’ mind, bright like cities and highways seen from orbit, maps of ancient planets, drawn wit guttural monkey sounds.

Science Fiction and Fantasy 2015, edited by Rich Horton, Prime Books, 2015.

Ontario Lake and Toronto Islands

Ontario Lake and Toronto Islands

(All the pictures have been taken by Elena)

Comprising the only group of islands in the western part of lake Ontario, the Toronto Islands, formerly known as Island of Hiawatha and as Menecing Islands are a chain of small islands in face of the city of Toronto, located just offshore from the city centre.

These islands provide shelter for Toronto Harbour and they are a popular recreational destination. The chain is also home to a small residential community and to the Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport. The Toronto islands comprise the largest urban car-free community in North America, though some service vehicles are permitted. Recreational bicyclists are accommodated on the ferries. Bicycles, quadracycles, and canoes can be rented on the islands as well.

The meandering channels between the sandy and tree-covered islands can clearly be seen.

The Toronto Islands are connected to the mainland by several ferry services and an underwater 800 feet (240 m) pedestrian tunnel which will connect the Toronto mainland at the foot of Eireann Quay to the airport terminal at the Billy Bishop Airport. The pedestrian tunnel has moving sidewalks and elevators at both ends. On the island side, an escalator has also been constructed.

The total area of the islands is about 230 hectares (570 acres). The largest island is called Centre Island. It is crescent-shaped and forms the shoreline of both the Eastern and Western Channels. Algonquin (Sunfish Island) and Olympic Island are two of the other major islands. The former is mostly a residential area and the latter home to the city’s Island Public Science School.

Access is restricted to private watercraft, public ferries or small plane transports that frequently land at the Billy Bishop airport that resides at the far western end of these islands.

The so called Ward’s Island is actually the eastern end of Centre Island and like Algonquin is a residential area. Confusingly, Centre Island Park is located on Middle Island, which is as a consequence often mistaken for Centre Island. Centre Island is sometimes referred to as Toronto Island (note the singular form) to prevent this type of confusion.

Other smaller islands include Forestry Island which is heavily forested and has no fixed link to other islands; Snake Island is partially forest and beach facing Toronto Harbour (Snake Island Park) with an access from pedestrian bridge on south side to Centre Island; South Island is used for mooring and on-land storage of boats by the Royal Canadian Yacht Club; east end of island is cut off at Chippewa Avenue and covered by trees; a tennis courts located on west end of this island; RCYC Island, home of Royal Canadian Yacht Club with clubhouse, moorings and other club facilities, it has private pier for RCYC launches Kwasind and Hiawatha to mainland. Two unnamed islands occupy what was once Block House Bay: ringed island in Long Pond, located across from Mugg’s Island, its small sandbar allows boats to moor alongside and a small island in Lighthouse Pond sometimes called Hanlan’s Island.

Great Ontario Lake.
Evening on Ontario Lake.

The islands were originally a long peninsula or sand spit extending from the mainland, as these formations are composed of alluvial deposits from the erosion of the Scarborough Bluffs. The flow from the Niagara River to the south across Lake Ontario causes a counter-clockwise east-to-west current which has, over time, deposited sediments at the south end of the harbour to form a sand spit.

In 1852, a storm flooded sand pits on the peninsula, creating a channel east of Ward’s. The so called Eastern Cap channel was widened and made permanent by another storm in 1858.

A jet over the Ontario Lake
A plane over the lake, taking off from the Billy Bishop Airport.
The lake as seen in winter from the Guild Park.

Blue see.

The peninsula to the west of the Eastern Gap became known as the Toronto Islands. To the east of the Gap, the area of today’s Cherry Beach was known as “Fisherman’s Island”.

Sediment deposition was halted in the 1960s when the Leslie Street Spit was extended beyond the southern edge of the islands. Left to nature, the islands would diminish over time, but this is limited due to hard shore lines built to limit erosion.

A series of waterways allow boat traffic to navigate the island: Allan Lamport Regatta Course – located between Centre Island and Middle Island from Long Pond to east end of Far Enough Farm; Block House Bay – located on east side of Hanlan’s Point; Lighthouse Pond – located next to Gibratar Point lighthouse; Long Pond – located between Allan Lamport Regatta Course and Block House Bay; Snake Pond – located between Snug Harbour and Algonquin Island; Snug Harbour – located between Snake Island and Olympic Island; Trout Pond – located west of Lighthouse Bay on the south end of Hanlan’s Point; Hanlan Bay was a water way that has since been buried under the Toronto Island Airport runways.

The Toronto Islands provide a great, refreshing escape from downtown with a beautiful view of Lake Ontario on one side, and the city skyline on the other. In Summer, the islands area is a great place to bask on blue flag beaches.
Toronto Islands offer tourist features such as the Gibraltar Point Lighthouse, Franklin Children’s Garden,  Centreville Amusement Park and Far Enough Farm.
The Toronto Islands as seen from the lower observation deck of the CN Tower.

Billy Bishop Airport on the islands. Photo by Elena
Lake Ontario, calm and quiet
The Ontario Lake as seen from the Scarborough neighborhood
Ontario Lake, Scarborough.
The pier in Toronto.
Toronto Islands.

Getting the Most from HMOs

Getting the Most from HMOs

Health maintenance plans require you to be an activist about health



The age of the Health Maintenance Organization or HMO is well upon us, but savvy information on how to use one is hard to come by. Here come some answers to some critical questions for consumers:

How should one go about picking an HMO? – The first step is to understand your needs and expectations. What is it that you want from your health care and health insurance plan? Whether it’s physician’s choice, benefits, access to specific doctors, hospitals, or specialists, or the cost, you need to know what’s important to you.

The second step is to understand how an HMO works. What rules and procedures are different from what you may be used to? Then you have to find a plant that meets your needs and expectations?

Finally, you have to find a physician whom you trust. As with any other type of health care, it’s the personal relationship of the physician or physicians that will likely determine how you feel about your HMO?

What questions should I ask of an HMO before I join? – How do you get care on a routine basis, how do you get care in an emergency, how do you get a referral when you need specialty care, how do you get hospitalized if you need it, and what should you do when you’re away from home and need care? These are the fundamental issues that most people have to deal with.

Is an HMO suitable for someone with special medical needs or problems? – If there are specific types of benefits that are important to you, make sure you know what is covered, and, perhaps more important, what is not. Usually, the benefits are pretty similar. But there are some areas such as mental health, chronic care, substance abuse, and home care, where there may be important differences between HMOs.

HMO. Photo by Elena

It’s important, too, to know what hospitals the HOM is affiliated with. If you have a specific hospital in mind your have to make sure you’ll be able to go to that hospital if you want. If you have a special language need, you should consider those factors also.

Should my HMO be accredited? – There are only a limited number of HMOs that have gone through an accreditation process so far. A couple of years from now, when all health plans have gone through the process, you’ll be able to make a better comparison. But it’s certainly a useful piece of information. So is some of the information being published in health plan report cards by employers and consumer groups. They compare health plans based on the performance in preventive care – Pap smears, prenatal care, immunization. Those types of measures are a good indication of whether the health plan has an organized approach to prevention and improving quality.

What is a difference between a high option and low option plan? – There are usually two types of HMOs. One that requires you to stay within a network of HMO physicians, hospitals and specialists in order to be covered. And then there is the point-of-service plan that allows you to choose a physician or hospital or practice outside the HMO network, but requires you to pay more our of pocket and has higher premiums.

How much more do point-of-service plans usually cost? – It’s very difficult to say. Generally, the difference is that most HMOs only charge a few dollars per doctor visit. If you go to a physician outside the HMO network, you might have to pay a deductible, which might be several hundred dollars, and then a co-insurance payment similar to what you have in traditional insurance. So your out-of-pocket expense can be significantly higher, although there is usually a limit on how much you have to pay out of pocket on an annual basis.

Premiums vary a good deal, from 5 to 10 percent or more. A lot depends on whether your employer contributes to the premium, and if so, by how much.

Will high-option plans always allow me to go outside an HMO network? – Not necessarily if you’re joining through an employer. Your employer may have the choice of a traditional HMO available but may not always make that option available to you. Most people who join point-of-service plans get 80 to 90 percent of their care inside the networks. So people see the point-of-service plans as a kind of safety valve. It may be a way of making a transition into an HMO from free-for-service health care. It gives people that added assurance that they will be able to choose outside the network, even though most people who belong to those plans use the HMO network with very few exceptions.

Once I’ve picked an HMO, how can I make sure that I’m getting the most out of it? – There are some fundamental questions people need to ask. The first is, how do you choose a primary care doctor and what role will he or she play in your care? You may find that your current doctor participates in one or more HMOs. If so, ask if he or she will have to treat you differently. If you’re in an HMO. Is there going to be anything about the benefits or rules of coverage that will affect the way in which you’ll be treated?

If you are required to choose a new doctor, find out how the HMO chooses its doctors and who is available to you within a convenient distance to where you work or live. If you require specialty care or have an ongoing illness, find out when a primary care doctor will take care of you and when you would be referred to a specialist. Most HMOs have member service or consumer relations departments that can answer such questions. If you’re joining through an employer, your employer can often inform you. And in some cases there is comparative information that might be available from state regulators or employer coalitions or consumer magazines.

What drawbacks are there to HMOs? – You are more limited in your choice of physicians and hospitals than in a traditional insurance plan. The way to compensate is to establish a strong trusting relationship with your HMO physician. Most HOMs have ample resources available to them, but if you are used to making all of your own decisions about your health care, you are doing to have to adjust to a situation where you are making your decisions in concert with your HMO doctor or HMO. Some people end up feeling that the HMO is putting up barriers and standing in the way of getting the care they feel they need.

What’s Wrong, Doc?

According to a study by the National Center for Health Statistics, here’s what sends people to the doctor the most:

  • Hypertension – 3.9%.
  • Middle ear infection – 3.5%.
  • Pregnancy checkup – 3.3%.
  • General exam – 3%.
  • Acute super respiratory infection – 2.9%.
  • Health checkup of infant or child – 2.5%.
  • Diabetes – 2.2%.
  • Allergies – 1.7%.
  • Bronchitis – 1.7%.
  • Sore throat – 1.6%.