From Chartist to Technician

From Chartist to Technician

Here we will examine whether the evidence supports a pessimistic view of charting

Though chartists are not held in high repute in Wall Street, their colorful methods, suggesting an easy way to get rich quick have attracted a wide following. The companies that manufacture and distribute stock charts and charting paper have enjoyed a boom in their sales, and chartists themselves still find excellent employment opportunities with mutual funds and brokerage firms.

In the days before the computer, the laborious task of charting a course through the market was done by hand. Chartists were often viewed as peculiar men, with green eye-shades and carbon on their fingers, who were tucked away in a small closet at the back of the office. Now chartists have the services of a marvelous electronic computer, replete with a large display terminal which, at the tap of a finger, can produce any conceivable chart one might want to see. The chartist (now always called a technician) can, with the glee of a little child playing with a new electric train, produce a complete chart of a stock’s past performance, including measures of volume, the 200-day moving average (an average of prices over the previous 200 days recalculated each day), the strength of the stock relative to the market and relative to the industry, and literally hundreds of other averages, rations, oscillators, and indicators.

Once the chart has been thus displayed, another press of the button will make a Xerox copy of the entire picture, which may be studied further on the train back to Larchmont and later tacked on one of the bulletin boards around the room. The result is akin to the Pentagon war room. One mutual fund was known to concentrate its technical information in what is called “information central.” The computer also adds an aura of mystery and wonder to charting. Even if the chartist’s techniques are unscientific, it is difficult to make fun of the computer, and some of the public’s awe and admiration for computers has rubbed off on the technical analysts.

Correction does much, but encouragement does more (Johann Wolfgang von Goethe). Photo by Elena.

Stolen Goods

Stolen Goods

By Donald Olson (excerpt)

(Ellery Queen, Mystery Magazine, September 1993)

White carnations. Hope’s favorite flowers, delivered by a florist with a card from Paul, a gesture he hasn’t made in years. Hope could cry, sitting there in her elegant living room with its ivory walls set off by jade and cinnamon fabrics chosen to complement Paul’s collection of Chinese porcelain and his wife’s still-arresting beauty. She arranges the flowers in an Imari vase by the window overlooking the park, gazes unseeingly at the view, then wanders into the bedroom and picks up the letter where Paul has left it.

Last night, my dearest, taught me the meaning of the word ecstasy. This morning I tremble in fear of losing you. Let me die before that happens.

The words recall to Hope’s mind the face of the man to whom she wrote them, that brutally handsome face with its smoldering eyes and sensuous smile. His ruggedly virile charms had eased for those precious stolen hours the depressing effect upon her spirits Philip’s debilitating illness and perpetual crankiness had produced. How different her life might have been if Denny hadn’t been arrested for armed robbery and receiving stolen goods.

And hadn’t she been guilty, she’d told herself, of the same offense? Hadn’t she been a receiver of stolen gods? Wasn’t that what infidelity amounted to?

Poisoned by guilt, her passion had died as swiftly as it had been aroused; she’d burned Denny’s letters from prison without even reading them.

Paul seems in a reflective mood that night as they go to bed. Taking Hope in his arms, he says : “My dear, I know for a while there how it was, but the lines of communication are open again now, don’t you agree? I don’t need any more letters to make me realize how neglectful I’d become.”

Hope has never found the bed less comfortable. “It wasn’t all your fault,” she whispers.

“Were you really afraid I might leave you?”

“No, of course not.”

Stolen goods. Photo by Elena

“I got that impression from today’s letter. What was it you wrote? – I can’t bear the thought of losing you. I’d take any risk, I’d even kill, if I thought that might happen.” He laughs softly. “pretty strong words.”

Hope feels suddenly frightened, too confused to know what to say. It was ten years ago, she can’t be abolutely certain, yet she can almost swear she’s never written those particular words.

Hope calls Alice next morning and makes a date for lunch at the Four Seasons.

“The guy must be wacko,” says Alice. “Prison must have sent him around the bend. He is out, by the way.”

“Oh, no!”

“Dickie couldn’t tell me where he is, just that he served his time and was released two months ago. But why should he forge this latest letter? He must be good if it fooled Paul.”

“Alice, it fooled me. If I didn’t know better, I’d swear I’d written it.” She recalls the feeling of stunned disbelief when she’d taken the letter from Paul’s dresser and read the whole thing.

“That’s when you should have come clean,” says Alice. “Why in heaven’s name didn’t you tell him the truth?”

“I tried. I really did, but then I lost my nerve.”

A House in the Country

A House in the Country

The neighbors don’t come to call and prices are reasonable

Ah, the vacation villa. “I enjoy here a cozier, more profound and undisturbed retirement, “ wrote Pliny the Younger of his Tuscan retreat. “I am at a greater distance from the business of the town and the interruption of troublesome clients. All is calm as composed.”

Tuscany still beckons, but so do a lot of other spots in newer worlds. Recent surveys show that Americans’ interests in owing a vacation home has tripled, but prices, which crashed in 1988, still have not recovered. The New York Times reports that prices in some places in the Northeast are still 30 percent lower than they were in 1987. Mortgage bankers note that while prices in Florida are starting to come back and California prices are stabilizing, prices in much of the West are still down. John Tuccillo, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, notes that “although there was a brief rebound in 1994, prices are still going down on both coasts, as well as the South and West”. Only in the Midwest, Tuccillio says, have prices remained stable.

As baby boomers move into their prime earning years, prices could nudge upward. According to Mediamark Research, Inc. in New York, the median household income of families owing vacation homes is just $54,000. And another survey found that almost half of all respondents believed they had “some chance” of purchasing recreational property within the next decade. But the supply of homes is also growing and most experts doubt prices will climb above the levels of the late ‘80s anytime soon.

Davenport road and McAlpine street. Photo by Elena

Suburban sprawl is making is harder to find a perfect spot nearby. Already the average American travels over 300 miles to reach his vacation destination, and one-third of Americans travel over 500 miles. Besides, buyers are eschewing traditional summer homes for ones that can be used all years. That’s creating something of a boom in mountain areas like Taos, New Mexico, and the counties outside of Denver as action-oriented vacationers seek outdoor activities and more privacy.

Expert Tips: Uncle Sam Lends a Hand

If you rent out your vacation house 15 days or less per year, mortgage interest payments are deductible, as they are for your primary home. The rent doesn’t have to be declared as income and is tax-free.

A vacation home is classified as rental property if you rent it out for 15 or more days per year and stay in it yourself no more than 14 days or 10 percent of the total days it’s rented. All rent must be declared as income, but some of the utilities and maintenance costs can be deducted, as can losses on the building.

If you rent out your home for over 15 days but also stay in it yourself over 14 days or 10 percent of the total days it’s rented, it’s considered “mixed-use property”. But losses in excess of expenses aren’t deductible. 

Old Farmer’s Almanac

Old Farmer’s Almanac

Flipping a coin with the old almanac

For centuries, farmer’s almanacs have made extravagant claims for their ability to make long-term weather predictions. Not only are farmers said to plant their crops according to their favorite almanac’s advice, but even city dwellers are impressed by the annual forecasts of such stalwart practitioners of the art as the Old Farmer’s Almanac, published continuously since 1792. When The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicted heavy snowfall in the Northeast for the winter of 1994-1995, sales of snow shovels and snow tires were reported to have boomed. But how do The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s long-term forecasts measure up to those of the National Weather Service meteorologists at the Climate Analysis Center in Camp Springs, Md?

The almanac predicts general climatic data for each month of the year, but unlike the National Weather service, it tries to predict specific weather events in two- to three-day time periods. The almanac’s own full-time meteorologist relies on solar activity as the major indicator of future weather conditions. If their publishers believe there’ll be a storm of significant magnitude, they would predict it. Otherwise, they might just say rain or snow.

Climate. Can we predict general climatic data for each month of the year? Photo of Elena

However the publishers can’t cite success rates for the almanac’s forecasts, but meteorologists believe that to accurately gauge the almanac’s success, one would have to track many of its forecasts over many seasons. The Old Farmer’s Alamanac isn’t showing skill by that measure. That doesn’t mean that it’s not occasionally right. It’s right about as often as it’s wrong.

A University of Illinois study supports this claim. For instance, between November 1975 and October 1980, the almanac’s temperature forecasts proved accurate 53,2 percent of the time; its precipitation forecasts were right 51,5 of the time.

Winter season and our moods

During the winter season, many people's moods deteriorate. Some of the most common explanations given are lack of sunlight and enhanced loneliness felt by certain individuals during the holidays (due to the social gatherings emphasis).

The phenomenon has gained such presence, that there even is a related disorder: SAD or Seasonal Affective Disorder, a milder and temporary version of MDD or Major Depressive Disorder. By the way, clinical depression may likewise lift from time to time, or be cyclical and chronic.

However, health professionals are better able to provide any such information than the present text, which really has as its sole purpose the showcasing of some art inspired by cold winds... Thus, the images below represent some fantasy, romantic, Gothic and anime art, among other things.

Carens Wine and Cheese Bar

DIY Mode in Furniture

Put a Little Spring in Your Sofa

If you're in the market for a new sofa, you're probably wondering what makes a $5,000 sofa any different from one that costs a mere $500. The difference lies in the frame, padding, cushions, springs, fabric, and finish.

Padding: Sofas often wear at the arms because the maker has scrimped on padding. The better sofas have a layer of cotton or polyfiber over a layer of foam. Cheaper sofas have fabric right on top of the foam.

Springs: Eight-way hand-tied springs used to be a sign of a top-notch sofa. No more. Many less expensive sofas also have them although they are of interior quality. A better question: How many rows of springs are used in the seat? The best use four rows.

Cushions: Top-Quality foam cushions are made from virgin foam with a density of 2.2 pounds per cubic foot. Accept no less than 1.8. Lower-density foam deteriorates more quickly. If you're looking for a soft down cushion, be sure the cushion has at least 30 percent down feathers in it. Otherwise, you'll be paying for down and getting far less.

Fabric: The grade of a fabric determines the price, but is not a measure of the fabric's durability. Grades are based largely on fiber content and on how much waste results from matching the pattern. For durability, consider spending the extra for treating the sofa with fabric protection.

Frame: Maple and other hard-woods that grip nails well make the best frames. The wood should be skin-dried to prevent shrinkage and warping. The best frames are 1 1/2 inches thick (Experts refer to it as a 6/4 frame). To keep as sofa from sagging, joints and legs must be firmly attached to the frame. The best: joints that are double or trile doweled at the top corners, and firmly attached with reinforcing blocks where the arms meet the seat.

Finish: Attention to detail counts. In high-quality sofas, seams are straight, pleats lie flat, corners fill out, and cushions have metal zippers.

A pilgrimage to America's Furniture Mecca: More than half of all America's furniture is made in a 200-square-mile region of North Carolina. Photo by Elena.

List of some of the most famous outlets dedicated to furniture:

Atrium Furniture Showrooms, High Point, N.C.: One of the largest home furnishings malls in the South. Atrium features four floors with more than 500 furniture and accessory lines represented.

Hickory Furniture Mart, Hickory, N.C.: Sixty galleries and factory outlets carry 500 lines of furniture, bedding, accessories, antiques, and collectibles, all at deep discounts. If you have only a short stay in North Caroline, this is the one store not to miss.

Priba Furniture, Greensboro, N.C.: More than 300 lines of furniture, discounted accessories, lamps, wall coverings, fabrics, carpets. Fliers are sent to customers on their mailing list announcing sales and specials.

Shaw Furniture Gallery, Randleman, N.C.: In business since 1940. Pays for your lodging if you purchase over a certain amount.

Turner Tolson, New Bern, N.C.: In business since 1887. Home and business furniture. Turner Tolson will pay for your lodging if you purchase over a certain amount.

Windsor Furniture Galleries, High Point, N.C.: Expert service and courteous design help.

Young's Furniture And Rug Company, High Point, N.C.: Specializes in upper-end furnishings. The staff includes interior designers, who are helpful and courteous.

Zaki Oriental Rugs, High Point, N.C.: Large showroom packed with more than 5,000 quality rugs, up to 16 by 26 feet, from Pakistan, India, China, Afghanistan, Portugal, and other countries.