The Republicans Come On Strong

The Republicans Come On Strong

The GOP made huge gains in ’94 – chances are they’ll make more.

Soothsayers beware. Few predicted the landslide that swept the country in the 1994 mid-term election, wresting control of both the Senate and the House from the hands of Democrats for the first time in four decades. Will the Republicans be able to make further gains in 1996 or will the Democrats regain lost ground? Consider the historical tea leaves.

The Presidency

When Bill Clinton was elected by a narrow plurality of 43 percent of the popular vote in 1992, the Democrats took control of the White House for the first time in 12 years. Democrats have occupied the White House for 21 years of the postwar period and Republicans for 29, but prior to 1992, Democrats had controlled the White Hose for only for of the previous 24 years. Franklin D. Roosevelt was the last Democrat elected to a second term – off course, he was elected to third and fourth terms as well.

Michael Barone, editor of the Almanac of American Politics, argues that Clinton was a tough road ahead. “People aren’t with him on the issues and there aren’t with him on character,” Barone says.

Besides, a new political calendar may also give challengers an edge. More states will hold their primaries early, so by late spring of 1996 it should be clear who the Republican and Democratic nominees will be. That means they will have more time to plot strategy and raise money for the general election.

People going together. Photo by Elena

The Congress

Prior to the 1994 elections, Republicans had not held both houses of Congress since 1953. The ’94 Democratic rout was hailed by some analysis as evidence of a sea change in American politics. Indeed, since the election the Republicans have picked up two more Senate seats with the high-profile defections of Sens. Richard Shelby (formerly D-Ala.) and Ben Nighthorse Campbell (formerly D-Colo.). The current Republican edge: 54 to 46.

Of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs in ’96, 18 are currently held by Republicans and 15 by Democrats. But political analysts reckon that 11 of those 18 Republican seats are likely to remain in GOP hands. Only two of the 15 seats currently held by Democrat are considered safe. For a state-by-state rundown of the ’96 races, see The Republican Revolution.

Republicans seem likely to keep control of the House, as well. “People are tending to vote more of a straight ticket in the 1990s than they used to,” Barone notes. Nevertheless, if their is any fallout from the “Republican Revolution,” it is most likely to be felt in the House. All 435 seats are up for grabs in 1996. The current party line-up: 231 Republicans, 203 Democrats, and one Independent. For a region-by-region breakdown of the race, see The Republican Revolution (Part Two).

The Statehouse Races

The Republicans occupy 31 governor’s mansions. Maine is held by an independent. The governors of Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi are up for reelection in 1995. The first two are currently held by Democrats; Kirk Fordice of Mississippi is a Republican. In 1996, 11 more states will choose governors. Seven are currently controlled by Democrats and for by Republicans. Once again, the odds favor the Republicans: See Who’s Who of Governors.

What’s Up For Grabs in 1996

All 335 House seats, 33 Senate seats, 11 gubernatorial spots, and one spot in the Oval Office are up for election on November 5, 1996. The number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats has been declining since 1962. Meanwhile, the number of Republican voters is on the rise. Republicans continue to make gains in large southern states such as Florida, North Carolina, and Texas. Clinton is in deep trouble in seven of the states he won in 1992, according to the Cook Report. The states – Georgia, Louisiana, Kentucky, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Tennessee – will have a total of 52 electoral votes in the upcoming election. No Republican has ever won the party’s nomination without winning the New Hampshire primary.

A who’s who of Governors: With the Republican Congress promising to turn many federal programs over to the states, the residents of governor’s mansions could gain increased importance.